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Using a regression line to make predictions

Gasoline consumption in the United States has been steadily increasing. Consumption data from 1994 to 2004 is shown in [link] . http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/2005/html/table_04_10.html Determine whether the trend is linear, and if so, find a model for the data. Use the model to predict the consumption in 2008.

Year '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Consumption (billions of gallons) 113 116 118 119 123 125 126 128 131 133 136

The scatter plot of the data, including the least squares regression line, is shown in [link] .

Scatter plot, showing the line of best fit. It is titled 'Gas Consumption VS Year'. The x-axis is 'Year After 1994', and the y-axis is 'Gas Consumption (billions of gallons)'. The points are strongly positively correlated and the line of best fit goes through most of the points completely.

We can introduce new input variable, t , representing years since 1994.

The least squares regression equation is:

C ( t ) = 113.318 + 2.209 t

Using technology, the correlation coefficient was calculated to be 0.9965, suggesting a very strong increasing linear trend.

Using this to predict consumption in 2008 ( t = 14 ) ,

C ( 14 ) = 113.318 + 2.209 ( 14 )           = 144.244

The model predicts 144.244 billion gallons of gasoline consumption in 2008.

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Use the model we created using technology in [link] to predict the gas consumption in 2011. Is this an interpolation or an extrapolation?

150.871 billion gallons; extrapolation

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Access these online resources for additional instruction and practice with fitting linear models to data.

Key concepts

  • Scatter plots show the relationship between two sets of data. See [link] .
  • Scatter plots may represent linear or non-linear models.
  • The line of best fit may be estimated or calculated, using a calculator or statistical software. See [link] .
  • Interpolation can be used to predict values inside the domain and range of the data, whereas extrapolation can be used to predict values outside the domain and range of the data. See [link] .
  • The correlation coefficient, r , indicates the degree of linear relationship between data. See [link] .
  • A regression line best fits the data. See [link] .
  • The least squares regression line is found by minimizing the squares of the distances of points from a line passing through the data and may be used to make predictions regarding either of the variables. See [link] .

Section exercises

Verbal

Describe what it means if there is a model breakdown when using a linear model.

When our model no longer applies, after some value in the domain, the model itself doesn’t hold.

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What is interpolation when using a linear model?

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What is extrapolation when using a linear model?

We predict a value outside the domain and range of the data.

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Explain the difference between a positive and a negative correlation coefficient.

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Explain how to interpret the absolute value of a correlation coefficient.

The closer the number is to 1, the less scattered the data, the closer the number is to 0, the more scattered the data.

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Algebraic

A regression was run to determine whether there is a relationship between hours of TV watched per day ( x ) and number of sit-ups a person can do ( y ) . The results of the regression are given below. Use this to predict the number of sit-ups a person who watches 11 hours of TV can do.

y = a x + b a = −1.341 b = 32.234   r = −0.896
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Questions & Answers

how did you get 1640
Noor Reply
If auger is pair are the roots of equation x2+5x-3=0
Peter Reply
Wayne and Dennis like to ride the bike path from Riverside Park to the beach. Dennis’s speed is seven miles per hour faster than Wayne’s speed, so it takes Wayne 2 hours to ride to the beach while it takes Dennis 1.5 hours for the ride. Find the speed of both bikers.
MATTHEW Reply
420
Sharon
from theory: distance [miles] = speed [mph] × time [hours] info #1 speed_Dennis × 1.5 = speed_Wayne × 2 => speed_Wayne = 0.75 × speed_Dennis (i) info #2 speed_Dennis = speed_Wayne + 7 [mph] (ii) use (i) in (ii) => [...] speed_Dennis = 28 mph speed_Wayne = 21 mph
George
Let W be Wayne's speed in miles per hour and D be Dennis's speed in miles per hour. We know that W + 7 = D and W * 2 = D * 1.5. Substituting the first equation into the second: W * 2 = (W + 7) * 1.5 W * 2 = W * 1.5 + 7 * 1.5 0.5 * W = 7 * 1.5 W = 7 * 3 or 21 W is 21 D = W + 7 D = 21 + 7 D = 28
Salma
Devon is 32 32​​ years older than his son, Milan. The sum of both their ages is 54 54​. Using the variables d d​ and m m​ to represent the ages of Devon and Milan, respectively, write a system of equations to describe this situation. Enter the equations below, separated by a comma.
Aaron Reply
find product (-6m+6) ( 3m²+4m-3)
SIMRAN Reply
-42m²+60m-18
Salma
what is the solution
bill
how did you arrive at this answer?
bill
-24m+3+3mÁ^2
Susan
i really want to learn
Amira
I only got 42 the rest i don't know how to solve it. Please i need help from anyone to help me improve my solving mathematics please
Amira
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Aphelele
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Bajemah
-6m(3mA²+4m-3)+6(3mA²+4m-3) =-18m²A²-24m²+18m+18mA²+24m-18 Rearrange like items -18m²A²-24m²+42m+18A²-18
Salma
complete the table of valuesfor each given equatio then graph. 1.x+2y=3
Jovelyn Reply
x=3-2y
Salma
y=x+3/2
Salma
Hi
Enock
given that (7x-5):(2+4x)=8:7find the value of x
Nandala
3x-12y=18
Kelvin
please why isn't that the 0is in ten thousand place
Grace Reply
please why is it that the 0is in the place of ten thousand
Grace
Send the example to me here and let me see
Stephen
A meditation garden is in the shape of a right triangle, with one leg 7 feet. The length of the hypotenuse is one more than the length of one of the other legs. Find the lengths of the hypotenuse and the other leg
Marry Reply
how far
Abubakar
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Enock
state in which quadrant or on which axis each of the following angles given measure. in standard position would lie 89°
Abegail Reply
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BenJay
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Method
I am eliacin, I need your help in maths
Rood
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Amoon
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Amoon
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Enock
what the last part of the problem mean?
Roger
The Jones family took a 15 mile canoe ride down the Indian River in three hours. After lunch, the return trip back up the river took five hours. Find the rate, in mph, of the canoe in still water and the rate of the current.
cameron Reply
Shakir works at a computer store. His weekly pay will be either a fixed amount, $925, or $500 plus 12% of his total sales. How much should his total sales be for his variable pay option to exceed the fixed amount of $925.
mahnoor Reply
I'm guessing, but it's somewhere around $4335.00 I think
Lewis
12% of sales will need to exceed 925 - 500, or 425 to exceed fixed amount option. What amount of sales does that equal? 425 ÷ (12÷100) = 3541.67. So the answer is sales greater than 3541.67. Check: Sales = 3542 Commission 12%=425.04 Pay = 500 + 425.04 = 925.04. 925.04 > 925.00
Munster
difference between rational and irrational numbers
Arundhati Reply
When traveling to Great Britain, Bethany exchanged $602 US dollars into £515 British pounds. How many pounds did she receive for each US dollar?
Jakoiya Reply
how to reduced echelon form
Solomon Reply
Jazmine trained for 3 hours on Saturday. She ran 8 miles and then biked 24 miles. Her biking speed is 4 mph faster than her running speed. What is her running speed?
Zack Reply
d=r×t the equation would be 8/r+24/r+4=3 worked out
Sheirtina
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Source:  OpenStax, Algebra and trigonometry. OpenStax CNX. Nov 14, 2016 Download for free at https://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11758/1.6
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