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[link] shows the population, in thousands, of harbor seals in the Wadden Sea over the years 1997 to 2012.

Year Seal Population (Thousands) Year Seal Population (Thousands)
1997 3.493 2005 19.590
1998 5.282 2006 21.955
1999 6.357 2007 22.862
2000 9.201 2008 23.869
2001 11.224 2009 24.243
2002 12.964 2010 24.344
2003 16.226 2011 24.919
2004 18.137 2012 25.108
  1. Let x represent time in years starting with x = 0 for the year 1997. Let y represent the number of seals in thousands. Use logistic regression to fit a model to these data.
  2. Use the model to predict the seal population for the year 2020.
  3. To the nearest whole number, what is the limiting value of this model?
  1. The logistic regression model that fits these data is y = 25.65665979 1 + 6.113686306 e 0.3852149008 x .
  2. If the population continues to grow at this rate, there will be about 25,634 seals in 2020.
  3. To the nearest whole number, the carrying capacity is 25,657.
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Key concepts

  • Exponential regression is used to model situations where growth begins slowly and then accelerates rapidly without bound, or where decay begins rapidly and then slows down to get closer and closer to zero.
  • We use the command “ExpReg” on a graphing utility to fit function of the form y = a b x to a set of data points. See [link] .
  • Logarithmic regression is used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time.
  • We use the command “LnReg” on a graphing utility to fit a function of the form y = a + b ln ( x ) to a set of data points. See [link] .
  • Logistic regression is used to model situations where growth accelerates rapidly at first and then steadily slows as the function approaches an upper limit.
  • We use the command “Logistic” on a graphing utility to fit a function of the form y = c 1 + a e b x to a set of data points. See [link] .

Section exercises

Verbal

What situations are best modeled by a logistic equation? Give an example, and state a case for why the example is a good fit.

Logistic models are best used for situations that have limited values. For example, populations cannot grow indefinitely since resources such as food, water, and space are limited, so a logistic model best describes populations.

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What is a carrying capacity? What kind of model has a carrying capacity built into its formula? Why does this make sense?

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What is regression analysis? Describe the process of performing regression analysis on a graphing utility.

Regression analysis is the process of finding an equation that best fits a given set of data points. To perform a regression analysis on a graphing utility, first list the given points using the STAT then EDIT menu. Next graph the scatter plot using the STAT PLOT feature. The shape of the data points on the scatter graph can help determine which regression feature to use. Once this is determined, select the appropriate regression analysis command from the STAT then CALC menu.

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Questions & Answers

Ayele, K., 2003. Introductory Economics, 3rd ed., Addis Ababa.
Widad Reply
can you send the book attached ?
Ariel
?
Ariel
What is economics
Widad Reply
the study of how humans make choices under conditions of scarcity
AI-Robot
U(x,y) = (x×y)1/2 find mu of x for y
Desalegn Reply
U(x,y) = (x×y)1/2 find mu of x for y
Desalegn
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Jan Reply
this is the study of how the society manages it's scarce resources
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macroeconomic is the branch of economics which studies actions, scale, activities and behaviour of the aggregate economy as a whole.
husaini
etc
husaini
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Abdulraufu
Suppose the demand function that a firm faces shifted from Qd  120 3P to Qd  90  3P and the supply function has shifted from QS  20  2P to QS 10  2P . a) Find the effect of this change on price and quantity. b) Which of the changes in demand and supply is higher?
Toofiq Reply
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factors influencing supply
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Jan
economics is a science that studies human behaviour as a relationship b/w ends and scares means which have alternative uses
Jan
calculate the profit maximizing for demand and supply
Zarshad Reply
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Milan
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Nomsa Reply
out-of-pocket costs for a firm, for example, payments for wages and salaries, rent, or materials
AI-Robot
concepts of supply in microeconomics
David Reply
economic overview notes
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identify a demand and a supply curve
Salome Reply
i don't know
Parul
there's a difference
Aryan
Demand curve shows that how supply and others conditions affect on demand of a particular thing and what percent demand increase whith increase of supply of goods
Israr
Hi Sir please how do u calculate Cross elastic demand and income elastic demand?
Abari
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Source:  OpenStax, Algebra and trigonometry. OpenStax CNX. Nov 14, 2016 Download for free at https://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11758/1.6
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