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According to the sources of the report of the United Nations (UN), Spain, with the lowest rate of fecundity in the world (1.07 children by woman in a fertile age), would have 30,226,000 inhabitants in 2050. That is less than the 39,628,000 it had in 2002, which had increased to 42,197,000 million in 2004 thanks to the increase of immigrants, which were more than 600,000 in 2003. In 2003, Spain took in one out of three people who immigrated to the European Union.

According to the division of population among the United Nations, the forecasts of population for the year 2050, comparing present population and the foreseeable one in 2050 by demographic zones, would be the following: Europe (present 727 million) anticipated for 2050, 603 million (-124 million); North America (present 314 million) anticipated for 2050, 438 (+124 million); South America (present 519 million) anticipated for 2050, 806 (+287 million); Africa (present 794 million) anticipated for the year 2050, 2 billion inhabitants (+1.206 million); Asia (present 3.7 billion) anticipated for the year 2005, 5.4 billion (+1.750 million).

The differences between the developed first world and the third world are evident, although these forecasts are exposed to many variations in such a big gap. For Spain, the population variations are of 39,600,000 inhabitants in 2000; 36,600,000 in 2025; and 30,200,000 in 2050. Spain, according to these forecasts, would need 12 million immigrants by 2050.

The variations of population between Europe and Africa are remarkable: after World War II, Europe represented 22% of the world-wide population and Africa only 8%. Now the two zones have the same proportion of 13%. Nevertheless, by the year 2050, Africa will be three times more populated than Europe. With reference to Spain, these data are significant: 50 years ago, Spain had a population three times bigger than Morocco; whereas within half a century, Morocco will have 60% more inhabitants than Spain.

Why be surprised then that half of the Arab adolescents wish to immigrate and leave their countries? Of the 2.8 billion inhabitants of the 22 African-Arab countries, 38% of the members of that population are less than 14-years-old. Morocco at the moment has about 30.5 million inhabitants, where 19% of the people are below the poverty threshold, occupying 123 rd position (of 173) in an Index of Human Development (Spain has 21 st ). Fifty percent are illiterate. The percentage of unemployment among Moroccans between the ages of 15 and 34 is that of 50%, and every year Morocco need to employ 250,000 new young people. The birth-rate is 3.05 children per woman, while Spain’s is 1.05 children per woman. There are 3 million Moroccans living away from their country; 300,000 of these immigrants are in Spain. Moroccans form the most numerous national group of foreigners in Spain, followed by the Latin Americans, who are driven to immigrate by the same structural factors previously mentioned: a globalized international market in capital, resources, and work; an unjust division between the North and South; a world-wide demographic imbalance and countries of origin with serious problems of poverty, political corruption, or citizen insecurity.

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Source:  OpenStax, Immigration in the united states and spain: consideration for educational leaders. OpenStax CNX. Dec 20, 2009 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col11150/1.1
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