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Subjective probability and a football game

The probability that one's favorite football team will win the next Superbowl Game may well be only a subjective probability of the bettor. This is certainlynot a probability that can be determined by a large number of repeated trials. The game is only played once. However, the subjective assessment of probabilitiesmay be based on intimate knowledge of relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved, as well as factors such as weather, injuries, and experience. There maybe a considerable objective basis for the subjective assignment of probability. In fact, there is often a hidden “frequentist” element in the subjective evaluation.There is an assessment (perhaps unrealized) that in similar situations the frequencies tend to coincide with the value subjectively assigned.

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The probability of rain

Newscasts often report that the probability of rain of is 20 percent or 60 percent or some other figure. There are several difficulties here.

  • To use the formal mathematical model, there must be precision in determining an event. An event either occurs or it does not. How do wedetermine whether it has rained or not? Must there be a measurable amount? Where must this rain fall to be counted? During what time period?Even if there is agreement on the area, the amount, and the time period, there remains ambiguity: one cannot say with logical certainty the event did occur orit did not occur. Nevertheless, in this and other similar situations, use of the concept of an event may be helpful even if the description is notdefinitive. There is usually enough practical agreement for the concept to be useful.
  • What does a 30 percent probability of rain mean? Does it mean that if the prediction is correct, 30 percent of the areaindicated will get rain (in an agreed amount) during the specified time period? Or does it mean that 30 percent of the occasions on which such aprediction is made there will be significant rainfall in the area during the specified time period? Again, the latter alternative may well hide afrequency interpretation. Does the statement mean that it rains 30 percent of the times when conditions are similar to current conditions?

Regardless of the interpretation, there is some ambiguity about the event and whether it has occurred. And there is some difficulty with knowinghow to interpret the probability figure. While the precise meaning of a 30 percent probability of rain may be difficult to determine, it isgenerally useful to know whether the conditions lead to a 20 percent or a 30 percent or a 40 percent probability assignment. And there is no doubt that asweather forecasting technology and methodology continue to improve the weather probability assessments will become increasingly useful.

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Another common type of probability situation involves determining the distribution of some characteristic over a population—usually by a survey. Thesedata are used to answer the question: What is the probability (likelihood) that a member of the population, chosen “at random” (i.e., on an equallylikely basis) will have a certain characteristic?

Questions & Answers

how do they get the third part x = (32)5/4
kinnecy Reply
can someone help me with some logarithmic and exponential equations.
Jeffrey Reply
sure. what is your question?
okay, so you have 6 raised to the power of 2. what is that part of your answer
I don't understand what the A with approx sign and the boxed x mean
it think it's written 20/(X-6)^2 so it's 20 divided by X-6 squared
I'm not sure why it wrote it the other way
I got X =-6
ok. so take the square root of both sides, now you have plus or minus the square root of 20= x-6
oops. ignore that.
so you not have an equal sign anywhere in the original equation?
Commplementary angles
Idrissa Reply
im all ears I need to learn
right! what he said ⤴⤴⤴
what is a good calculator for all algebra; would a Casio fx 260 work with all algebra equations? please name the cheapest, thanks.
Kevin Reply
a perfect square v²+2v+_
Dearan Reply
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Abdirahman Reply
algebra 2 Inequalities:If equation 2 = 0 it is an open set?
Kim Reply
or infinite solutions?
The answer is neither. The function, 2 = 0 cannot exist. Hence, the function is undefined.
Embra Reply
if |A| not equal to 0 and order of A is n prove that adj (adj A = |A|
Nancy Reply
rolling four fair dice and getting an even number an all four dice
ramon Reply
Kristine 2*2*2=8
Bridget Reply
Differences Between Laspeyres and Paasche Indices
Emedobi Reply
No. 7x -4y is simplified from 4x + (3y + 3x) -7y
Mary Reply
is it 3×y ?
Joan Reply
J, combine like terms 7x-4y
Bridget Reply
how do you translate this in Algebraic Expressions
linda Reply
Need to simplify the expresin. 3/7 (x+y)-1/7 (x-1)=
Crystal Reply
. After 3 months on a diet, Lisa had lost 12% of her original weight. She lost 21 pounds. What was Lisa's original weight?
Chris Reply
what's the easiest and fastest way to the synthesize AgNP?
Damian Reply
types of nano material
abeetha Reply
I start with an easy one. carbon nanotubes woven into a long filament like a string
many many of nanotubes
what is the k.e before it land
what is the function of carbon nanotubes?
what is nanomaterials​ and their applications of sensors.
Ramkumar Reply
what is nano technology
Sravani Reply
what is system testing?
preparation of nanomaterial
Victor Reply
Yes, Nanotechnology has a very fast field of applications and their is always something new to do with it...
Himanshu Reply
good afternoon madam
what is system testing
what is the application of nanotechnology?
In this morden time nanotechnology used in many field . 1-Electronics-manufacturad IC ,RAM,MRAM,solar panel etc 2-Helth and Medical-Nanomedicine,Drug Dilivery for cancer treatment etc 3- Atomobile -MEMS, Coating on car etc. and may other field for details you can check at Google
anybody can imagine what will be happen after 100 years from now in nano tech world
after 100 year this will be not nanotechnology maybe this technology name will be change . maybe aftet 100 year . we work on electron lable practically about its properties and behaviour by the different instruments
name doesn't matter , whatever it will be change... I'm taking about effect on circumstances of the microscopic world
how hard could it be to apply nanotechnology against viral infections such HIV or Ebola?
silver nanoparticles could handle the job?
not now but maybe in future only AgNP maybe any other nanomaterials
can nanotechnology change the direction of the face of the world
Prasenjit Reply
At high concentrations (>0.01 M), the relation between absorptivity coefficient and absorbance is no longer linear. This is due to the electrostatic interactions between the quantum dots in close proximity. If the concentration of the solution is high, another effect that is seen is the scattering of light from the large number of quantum dots. This assumption only works at low concentrations of the analyte. Presence of stray light.
Ali Reply
the Beer law works very well for dilute solutions but fails for very high concentrations. why?
bamidele Reply
how did you get the value of 2000N.What calculations are needed to arrive at it
Smarajit Reply
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A fair die is tossed 180 times. Find the probability P that the face 6 will appear between 29 and 32 times inclusive
Samson Reply

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Source:  OpenStax, Applied probability. OpenStax CNX. Aug 31, 2009 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col10708/1.6
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