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In 2010 there was a worldwide crossover point: by that year urban population became greater than rural population.

China passed the crossover point in 2011. This would have been unbelievable even in the year 2000. There are now more Chinese in urban than rural areas, after two millennia wherein China was predominantly rural.

In any case,population movements in China in the past 100 years have been sizeable in any case. It is also worth noting that Chinese history in the last 100 years has many examples of major intra national migration: for example, movements of people to Manchuria in the North. While the Manchurian population in 1900 was 7 million, in 1992 it reached 22 million, a 3-fold increase.

To return to the present: the whole world has been urbanizing rapidly especially in developing countries.

Urbanization is a phenomenon that is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing because it makes possible strategic and lower cost concentrations of brain power, artistic talent and manufacturing materials. It is a curse because of the implications of urbanization for traffic congestion, urban crime, air and water pollution and, often, mental stress.

Urbanization is nothing new. For the past century , the world has been in the grip of a truly massive shift from rural to urban society. Far from subsiding, this demographic shift is accelerating . In 1900 only 14% of the world population resided in urban areas, compared to more than 50% of the world population in 2010.

The most credible census estimates suggest that 20 years from now, two-thirds of the world population will be urban dwellers. In 2007, only one city — Tokyo— had more than 20 million people. In 20 years, at least seven of the world’s cities will have 20 million people or more; none of these seven will be in the United States.

Why is urbanization another reason for the widespread decline of fertility?

In rural areas, children were long seen as needed for production . But children are relatively more expensive in urban areas. This affects fertility decisions in a major way. Recent fertility declines in Africa have been most dramatic in urban areas. The probable reason is growing relative costs of child-rearing in urban areas. More has to be invested in each child than in rural areas to allow them to grow up.

It is worth noting that a February 2008 article in Science Magazine argued that the growing costs of child rearing reflects (mainly) rapidly growing parental investment in children in urban areas.

Other factors associated with fertility decline accompanying urbanization are:

  • Overcrowded housing and costly housing.
  • Lower marriage rates in urban areas.

The Momentum Factor: Given the recent very sharp declines in fertility and mortality, the population of world will continue to grow for a while, probably from seven billion today to over nine billion in 2050, furnishing many more potential residents of cities.

The point : The world population will continue to grow long after replacement fertility rates have been reached in emerging nations. In fact, fully 70% of future world population growth will take place in only 20 countries in sub-Sahara Africa and Asia (excluding China).

Further perspective on convergence

Fifty years ago there was widespread optimism that living standards across the world would converge → a world of essentially similar income levels.

Convergence did in fact occur in growth rates of developed nations between 1870 and 1990. Significance of 1870? What occurred then?

  1. The Meiji Restoration in Japan (1868)
  2. The unification of German State after French -Prussian (1860)
  3. The end of U.S. Civil War (1865).

Convergence among Western nations did occur from 1870-2000 developed Convergence : U.S. grew at average annual rate of 1.7%, while 17 other developed nations grew at 1.6%

But, until 1990 there was divergence big time ( not convergence) between

This began to change ( after 1980 , and the reforms of Deng Vio Peng.

Generally from 1820-2000, the ratio of per capita income between the richest and the poorest countries increased by almost a factor of five .

In recent years, as noted earlier, this ratio has been declining. By the end of this collection you will likely understand a great deal about how this came about.

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Source:  OpenStax, Economic development for the 21st century. OpenStax CNX. Jun 05, 2015 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11747/1.12
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