0.2 Historic perspectives: economic and population growth  (Page 6/10)

These reasons were manifold: wars, disease (Black Death), pestilence, lack of sewage treatment, lack of technological progress, lack of Human Capital formation along with other reasons noted earlier. Also, in almost all nations after the fall of Rome until the 1800s, in those periods wherein per capita income temporarily improved, something happened to cancel the gain, such as rapid population growth.

The Malthusian Mechanism (Malthusian Trap) is typically used to explain this pattern. It was named after Reverend Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834) who focused also on economic issues. Malthus was profoundly pessimistic about prospects for income growth per capita, anywhere, including Britain. Experience up until recently seemed to bear him out.

From 500 C.E. to 1200, population growth moved almost apace with economic growth. With any rise in economic growth, fertility rose, as families sought more children. This led to increased population and a decline in Income Per Capita. The result was widespread starvation, then decline in population. Income Per Capita would then rise and the cycle would begin again.

This began to change somewhat as Western Europe emerged from the Dark Ages. Increased exposure to some types of education and moderate improvements in public health led to beginnings of technological change and growing international trade, and some income growth.

By 1820, just as the Industrial Revolution was hitting its stride, average annual per capita income had risen to $667. In 2013 dollars this was a 50% increase over that of 1000 C.E.). But, this reflected a truly negligible annual growth rate of less than 1/10 of 1% per year).

By 1900, the early fruits of the Industrial Revolution plus the beginnings of a vast expansion in world trade led to the beginnings of modern economic growth, as well as large increases in population growth.

Digression on population growth

Early humans living about 1 million years ago (according to geneticists who study ancient DNA) were extremely close to extinction .

Such evidence as is available suggests that one million years ago, the population of various early human species was about 55,000 individuals (including Homo erectus, Homo sapiens and Homo ergaster). In the U.S. we place species that fall below 50,000 in number on a warning list, before they reach the “endangered list”.

As best as we can tell, there was only negligible growth in the number of humans for the next 800,000 years. Things began to change in the millennium before 1 B.C.E. Human population reached 6 million in 8000 B.C. By 1100 C.E., the world human population doubled. This was due mainly to slow but steady improvements in agriculture, drinking water, and sanitation as well as technological innovation in the Roman Empire (using technology largely taken from Egypt).

From 1100 to 1700, the world’s population doubled again , to 600 million (20 million in North America, overwhelmingly Native Americans).

Really explosive population growth began in the 150 years after 1700: world population doubled from 600 million to 1.2 billion by 1850.