0.17 Energy: global warming change  (Page 2/8)

Perhaps by coincidence, and perhaps not, 2030 is the year in which total Chinese population is forecast to begin to decline, owing primarily to the “one-child” per family program initiated in the eighties and relaxed slightly in 2013.

In any case, several years will pass before the effectiveness of this latest accord can be expected to have any material effects upon global carbon emissions. Skepticism abounds, not only in the U.S., but in much of Europe as well. Criticism of the U.S.-China Accord has come from what could be called unexpected sources including Lord Browne, former CEO of British Petroleum. To quote:

The targets agreed by President Obama and President Xi will not be achieved with the policies in place. They will require new policies that could reduce the two countries oil demand by more than 17 billion barrels of oil over the next 15 years. Pilita Clark, “Energy Groups Face Existential Climate Threat, Warns ex-BP Chief”, Financial Times , November 19, 2014.

Skeptics, however, should bear in mind that international agreements to reduce damage to the atmosphere and climate are not by any means doomed to failure. A case in point is the Montreal Protocol, signed in that Canadian City in 1987. The purpose of this agreement was to reduce the atmospheric presence of ozone – depleting substances (ODSs) in the stratosphere especially hydrofluorocarbon (HCFC). These substances were adjudged by scientists to be responsible for very harmful depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, especially in polar regions. There the “ozone hole” in the atmosphere was gaping above Antarctica, thereby depleting the ozone layer. Most of the ODSs are also potent greenhouse gases.

The ozone layer is vitally important to humans, animals and plants because it protects life from ultraviolet (UV) radiation from space.

The U.S. and other larger industrialized nations before 1987 were the principal sources of emissions of ODSs. Virtually all emitting nations, including the U.S. were signatories to the Montreal Protocol. After more than a quarter century of experience, the Montreal Protocol may be adjudged successful. While the ozone layer remains in some danger because several ODSs remain in the atmosphere long after emissions end, and some HCFCs in some years (2007-08) have increased at rapid rates, the risks to the layer have been materially reduced by worldwide actions to control the global production and consumption of ODSs since 1997.

The majority of these substances have been phased out of production, while demand for substitutes for HCFCs such as perfluorocarbons (PFCs) has increased. This has helped protect the ozone layer, but some of these substances are potent greenhouse gases as well.

In any case, the Montreal Protocol and its amendments since 1997 have served to reduce ozone-depleting substances by about 10 billion metric tons by 2011. By comparison, global emissions of CO ₂ exceeded 35 billion tons per year in 2014. The Montreal Protocol, even with its less-than-perfect results, stands as an example of what can be achieved when commitments to agreement on measures for atmospheric protection are firm and widespread.