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12.3 The phillips curve

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By the end of this section, you will be able to:
  • Explain the Phillips curve, noting its impact on the theories of Keynesian economics
  • Graph a Phillips curve
  • Identify factors that cause the instability of the Phillips curve
  • Analyze the Keynesian policy for reducing unemployment and inflation

The simplified AD/AS model that we have used so far is fully consistent with Keynes’s original model. More recent research, though, has indicated that in the real world, an aggregate supply curve is more curved than the right angle used in this chapter. Rather, the real-world AS curve is very flat at levels of output far below potential (“the Keynesian zone”), very steep at levels of output above potential (“the neoclassical zone”) and curved in between (“the intermediate zone”). This is illustrated in [link] . The typical aggregate supply curve leads to the concept of the Phillips curve.

Keynes, neoclassical, and intermediate zones in the aggregate supply curve

The graph shows three aggregate demand curves to represent different zones: the Keynesian zone, the intermediate zone, and the neoclassical zone. The Keynesian zone is farthest to the left as well as the lowest; the intermediate zone is the center of the three curves; the neoclassical is farthest to the right as well as the highest.
Near the equilibrium Ek, in the Keynesian zone at the far left of the SRAS curve, small shifts in AD, either to the right or the left, will affect the output level Yk, but will not much affect the price level. In the Keynesian zone, AD largely determines the quantity of output. Near the equilibrium En, in the neoclassical zone, at the far right of the SRAS curve, small shifts in AD, either to the right or the left, will have relatively little effect on the output level Yn, but instead will have a greater effect on the price level. In the neoclassical zone, the near-vertical SRAS curve close to the level of potential GDP (as represented by the LRAS line) largely determines the quantity of output. In the intermediate zone around equilibrium Ei, movement in AD to the right will increase both the output level and the price level, while a movement in AD to the left would decrease both the output level and the price level.

The discovery of the phillips curve

In the 1950s, A.W. Phillips , an economist at the London School of Economics, was studying the Keynesian analytical framework. The Keynesian theory implied that during a recession inflationary pressures are low, but when the level of output is at or even pushing beyond potential GDP, the economy is at greater risk for inflation. Phillips analyzed 60 years of British data and did find that tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, which became known as a Phillips curve    . [link] shows a theoretical Phillips curve, and the following Work It Out feature shows how the pattern appears for the United States.

A keynesian phillips curve tradeoff between unemployment and inflation

The graph provides a visual representation of the Phillips curve with a downward-sloping curve.
A Phillips curve illustrates a tradeoff between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate; if one is higher, the other must be lower. For example, point A illustrates an inflation rate of 5% and an unemployment rate of 4%. If the government attempts to reduce inflation to 2%, then it will experience a rise in unemployment to 7%, as shown at point B.

The phillips curve for the united states

Step 1. Go to this website to see the 2005 Economic Report of the President.

Step 2. Scroll down and locate Table B-63 in the Appendices. This table is titled “Changes in special consumer price indexes, 1960–2004.”

Step 3. Download the table in Excel by selecting the XLS option and then selecting the location in which to save the file.

Step 4. Open the downloaded Excel file.

Step 5. View the third column (labeled “Year to year”). This is the inflation rate, measured by the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index.

Step 6. Return to the website and scroll to locate the Appendix Table B-42 “Civilian unemployment rate, 1959–2004.

Step 7. Download the table in Excel.

Step 8. Open the downloaded Excel file and view the second column. This is the overall unemployment rate.

Step 9. Using the data available from these two tables, plot the Phillips curve for 1960–69, with unemployment rate on the x-axis and the inflation rate on the y-axis. Your graph should look like [link] .

The phillips curve from 1960–1969

The Phillips Curve shows a clear negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate over the period 1960-69.
This chart shows the negative relationship between unemployment and inflation.

Step 10. Plot the Phillips curve for 1960–1979. What does the graph look like? Do you still see the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment? Your graph should look like [link] .

U.s. phillips curve, 1960–1979

The tradeoff between unemployment and inflation appeared to break down during the 1970s as the Phillips Curve shifted out to the right, meaning a given unemployment rate corresponds to a variety of rates of inflation and vice versa.
The tradeoff between unemployment and inflation appeared to break down during the 1970s as the Phillips Curve shifted out to the right.

Over this longer period of time, the Phillips curve appears to have shifted out. There is no tradeoff any more.

Questions & Answers

Three charges q_{1}=+3\mu C, q_{2}=+6\mu C and q_{3}=+8\mu C are located at (2,0)m (0,0)m and (0,3) coordinates respectively. Find the magnitude and direction acted upon q_{2} by the two other charges.Draw the correct graphical illustration of the problem above showing the direction of all forces.
Kate Reply
To solve this problem, we need to first find the net force acting on charge q_{2}. The magnitude of the force exerted by q_{1} on q_{2} is given by F=\frac{kq_{1}q_{2}}{r^{2}} where k is the Coulomb constant, q_{1} and q_{2} are the charges of the particles, and r is the distance between them.
Muhammed
What is the direction and net electric force on q_{1}= 5µC located at (0,4)r due to charges q_{2}=7mu located at (0,0)m and q_{3}=3\mu C located at (4,0)m?
Kate Reply
what is the change in momentum of a body?
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what is a capacitor?
Raymond Reply
Capacitor is a separation of opposite charges using an insulator of very small dimension between them. Capacitor is used for allowing an AC (alternating current) to pass while a DC (direct current) is blocked.
Gautam
A motor travelling at 72km/m on sighting a stop sign applying the breaks such that under constant deaccelerate in the meters of 50 metres what is the magnitude of the accelerate
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please solve
Sharon
8m/s²
Aishat
What is Thermodynamics
Muordit
velocity can be 72 km/h in question. 72 km/h=20 m/s, v^2=2.a.x , 20^2=2.a.50, a=4 m/s^2.
Mehmet
A boat travels due east at a speed of 40meter per seconds across a river flowing due south at 30meter per seconds. what is the resultant speed of the boat
Saheed Reply
50 m/s due south east
Someone
which has a higher temperature, 1cup of boiling water or 1teapot of boiling water which can transfer more heat 1cup of boiling water or 1 teapot of boiling water explain your . answer
Ramon Reply
I believe temperature being an intensive property does not change for any amount of boiling water whereas heat being an extensive property changes with amount/size of the system.
Someone
Scratch that
Someone
temperature for any amount of water to boil at ntp is 100⁰C (it is a state function and and intensive property) and it depends both will give same amount of heat because the surface available for heat transfer is greater in case of the kettle as well as the heat stored in it but if you talk.....
Someone
about the amount of heat stored in the system then in that case since the mass of water in the kettle is greater so more energy is required to raise the temperature b/c more molecules of water are present in the kettle
Someone
definitely of physics
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Felix Reply
physics, biology and chemistry this is my Field
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field is a region of space under the influence of some physical properties
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Another formula for Acceleration
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a=v/t. a=f/m a
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Two bodies attract each other electrically. Do they both have to be charged? Answer the same question if the bodies repel one another.
JALLAH Reply
No. According to Isac Newtons law. this two bodies maybe you and the wall beside you. Attracting depends on the mass och each body and distance between them.
Dlovan
Are you really asking if two bodies have to be charged to be influenced by Coulombs Law?
Robert
like charges repel while unlike charges atttact
Raymond
What is specific heat capacity
Destiny Reply
Specific heat capacity is a measure of the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of a substance by one degree Celsius (or Kelvin). It is measured in Joules per kilogram per degree Celsius (J/kg°C).
AI-Robot
specific heat capacity is the amount of energy needed to raise the temperature of a substance by one degree Celsius or kelvin
ROKEEB
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Source:  OpenStax, Macroeconomics. OpenStax CNX. Jun 16, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11626/1.10
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