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While presidents are affected by foreign and domestic events, congressional approval is mainly affected by domestic events. When the economy rebounds or gas prices drop, public approval of Congress tends to go up. But when party politics within Congress becomes a domestic event, public approval falls. The passage of revenue bills has become an example of such an event, because deficits require Congress to make policy decisions before changing the budget. Deficit and debt are not new to the United States. Congress and presidents have attempted various methods of controlling debt, sometimes successfully and sometimes not. In the past three decades alone, however, several prominent examples have shown how party politics make it difficult for Congress to agree on a budget without a fight, and how these fights affect public approval.
In 1995, Democratic president Bill
Clinton and the Republican Congress hit a notable stalemate on the national budget. In this case, the Republicans had recently gained control of the House of Representatives and disagreed with Democrats and the president on how to cut spending and reduce the deficit. The government shut down twice, sending non-essential employees home for a few days in November, and then again in December and January.
Neil Irwin, “The 1995 Shutdown, from a Budget Official’s Perspective,”
Washington Post , 27 September 2013. Congressional approval fell during the event, from 35 to 30 percent.
Gallup. 2015. “Congress and the Public.”
Gallup . June 21, 2015. http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/Congress-Public.aspx (February 18, 2016); Jeffrey Jones. 2007. “Congress Approval Rating Matches Historical Low.”
Gallup . August 21, 2007. http://www.gallup.com/poll/28456/congress-approval-rating-matches-historical-low.aspx (February 18, 2016).
Divisions between the political parties, inside the Republican Party, and between Congress and the president became more pronounced over the next fifteen years, with the media closely covering the political strife.
Dan Merica. 2013. “1995 and 2013: Three Differences Between the Two Shutdowns.”
CNN . October 4, 2013. http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/01/politics/different-government-shutdowns/ (February 18, 2016). In 2011, the United States reached its debt ceiling, or maximum allowed debt amount. After much debate, the
Budget Control Act was passed by Congress and signed by President
Obama . The act increased the debt ceiling, but it also reduced spending and created automatic cuts, called sequestrations, if further legislation did not deal with the debt by 2013. When the country reached its new debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion in 2013, short-term solutions led to Congress negotiating both the debt ceiling and the national budget at the same time. The timing raised the stakes of the budget, and Democrats and Republicans fought bitterly over the debt ceiling, budget cuts, and taxes. Inaction triggered the automatic cuts to the budget in areas like defense, the courts, and public aid. By October, approximately 800,000 federal employees had been sent home, and the government went into partial shut-down for sixteen days before Congress passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling.
Paul Lewis, “US Shutdown Drags Into Second Day as Republicans Eye Fresh Debt Ceiling Crisis,”
Guardian , 2 October 2013. The handling of these events angered Americans, who felt the political parties needed to work together to solve problems rather than play political games. During the 2011 ceiling debate, congressional approval fell from 18 to 13 percent, while in 2013, congressional approval fell to a new low of 9 percent in November.
Gallup. 2015. “Congress and the Public.”
Gallup . June 21, 2015. http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/Congress-Public.aspx (February 18, 2016).
The Supreme Court generally enjoys less visibility than the other two branches of government, which leads to more stable but also less frequent polling results. Indeed, 22 percent of citizens surveyed in 2014 had never heard of Chief Justice John
Roberts , the head of the Supreme Court.
Andrew Dugan. 2014. “Americans’ Approval of Supreme Court New All-Time Low.”
Gallup . July 19, 2014. http://www.gallup.com/poll/163586/americans-approval-supreme-court-near-time-low.aspx (February 18, 2016). The court is protected by the justices’ non-elected, non-political positions, which gives them the appearance of integrity and helps the Supreme Court earn higher public approval ratings than presidents and Congress. To compare, between 2000 and 2010, the court’s approval rating bounced between 50 and 60 percent. During this same period, Congress had a 20 to 40 percent approval rating.
The Supreme Court’s approval rating is also less susceptible to the influence of events. Support of and opinions about the court are affected when the justices rule on highly visible cases that are of public interest or other events occur that cause citizens to become aware of the court.
James L. Gibson, and Gregory A. Caldeira. 2009. “Knowing the Supreme Court? A Reconsideration of Public Ignorance of the High Court.”
Journal of Politics 71 (2): 429–441. For example, following the
Bush v. Gore case (2000), in which the court instructed Florida to stop recounting ballots and George W. Bush won the Electoral College, 80 percent of Republicans approved of the court, versus only 42 percent of Democrats.
Bush v. Gore , 531 U.S. 98 (2000). Twelve years later, when the Supreme Court’s ruling in
National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius (2012) let stand the Affordable Care Act’s requirement of individual coverage, approval by Democrats increased to 68 percent, while Republican support dropped to 29 percent.
National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius , 567 U.S. ___ (2012); Andrew Dugan. 2014. “Americans’ Approval of Supreme Court New All-Time Low.”
Gallup . July 19, 2014. http://www.gallup.com/poll/163586/americans-approval-supreme-court-near-time-low.aspx (February 18, 2016). Currently, following the handing down of decisions in
King v. Burwell (2015) and
Obergefell v. Hodges (2015), which allowed the
Affordable Care Act ’s subsidies and prohibited states from denying same-sex marriage, respectively, 45 percent of people said they approved of the way the Supreme Court handled its job, down 4 percent from before the decisions.
King v. Burwell , 576 U.S. ___ (2015); Gallup Polling. 2015. “Supreme Court.”
Gallup Polling . http://www.gallup.com/poll/4732/supreme-court.aspx (February 18, 2016).
When citizens change their sources of information, their opinions may change. The influence of elites and workplaces, life experiences, and state political culture can all help change our opinions. Economic and social policies are likely to cause controversy if the government has to serve the needs of many different groups or balance rights and liberties, all with limited resources.
What Americans think about their government institutions shifts over time as well. Overall approval for presidents begins high and drops over time, with expected increases and decreases occurring due to domestic and international events. Approval for Congress changes more dramatically with domestic events and partisan behavior. The public has a lower opinion of Congress than of the president, and recent congressional approval levels have hovered between 10 and 20 percent. The Supreme Court has the most stable public approval ratings, possibly due to its less visible nature. But the court’s ratings can be affected by controversial decisions, such as its 2015 decisions on the Affordable Care Act and same-sex marriage.
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