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By the end of this section, you will be able to:

  • Discuss twin deficits as they related to budget and trade deficit
  • Explain the relationship between budget deficits and exchange rates
  • Explain the relationship between budget deficits and inflation
  • Identify causes of recessions

Government budget balances can affect the trade balance. As The Keynesian Perspective chapter discusses, a net inflow of foreign financial investment always accompanies a trade deficit, while a net outflow of financial investment always accompanies a trade surplus. One way to understand the connection from budget deficits to trade deficits is that when government creates a budget deficit with some combination of tax cuts or spending increases, it will increase aggregate demand in the economy, and some of that increase in aggregate demand will result in a higher level of imports. A higher level of imports, with exports remaining fixed, will cause a larger trade deficit. That means foreigners’ holdings of dollars increase as Americans purchase more imported goods. Foreigners use those dollars to invest in the United States, which leads to an inflow of foreign investment. One possible source of funding our budget deficit is foreigners buying Treasury securities that are sold by the U.S. government. So a budget deficit is often accompanied by a trade deficit.

Twin deficits?

In the mid-1980s, it was common to hear economists and even newspaper articles refer to the twin deficits, as the budget deficit and trade deficit both grew substantially. [link] shows the pattern. The federal budget deficit went from 2.6% of GDP in 1981 to 5.1% of GDP in 1985—a drop of 2.5% of GDP. Over that time, the trade deficit moved from 0.5% in 1981 to 2.9% in 1985—a drop of 2.4% of GDP. In the mid-1980s, the considerable increase in government borrowing was matched by an inflow of foreign investment capital, so the government budget deficit and the trade deficit moved together.

U.s. budget deficits and trade deficits

The graph shows little relation between the rising (getting larger) and falling of the budget deficit and trade deficit since the 1980s.
In the 1980s, the budget deficit and the trade deficit declined at the same time. However, since then, the deficits have stopped being twins. The trade deficit grew smaller in the early 1990s as the budget deficit increased, and then the trade deficit grew larger in the late 1990s as the budget deficit turned into a surplus. In the first half of the 2000s, both budget and trade deficits increased. But in 2009, the trade deficit declined as the budget deficit increased.

Of course, no one should expect the budget deficit and trade deficit to move in lockstep, because the other parts of the national saving and investment identity—investment and private savings—will often change as well. In the late 1990s, for example, the government budget balance turned from deficit to surplus, but the trade deficit remained large and growing. During this time, the inflow of foreign financial investment was supporting a surge of physical capital investment by U.S. firms. In the first half of the 2000s, the budget and trade deficits again increased together, but in 2009, the budget deficit increased while the trade deficit declined. The budget deficit and the trade deficits are related to each other, but they are more like cousins than twins.

Questions & Answers

how is the graph works?I don't fully understand
Rezat Reply
multiple choice question
Aster Reply
explain perfect market
Lindiwe Reply
In economics, a perfect market refers to a theoretical construct where all participants have perfect information, goods are homogenous, there are no barriers to entry or exit, and prices are determined solely by supply and demand. It's an idealized model used for analysis,
Ezea
What is ceteris paribus?
Shukri Reply
other things being equal
AI-Robot
When MP₁ becomes negative, TP start to decline. Extuples Suppose that the short-run production function of certain cut-flower firm is given by: Q=4KL-0.6K2 - 0.112 • Where is quantity of cut flower produced, I is labour input and K is fixed capital input (K-5). Determine the average product of lab
Kelo
Extuples Suppose that the short-run production function of certain cut-flower firm is given by: Q=4KL-0.6K2 - 0.112 • Where is quantity of cut flower produced, I is labour input and K is fixed capital input (K-5). Determine the average product of labour (APL) and marginal product of labour (MPL)
Kelo
yes,thank you
Shukri
Can I ask you other question?
Shukri
what is monopoly mean?
Habtamu Reply
What is different between quantity demand and demand?
Shukri Reply
Quantity demanded refers to the specific amount of a good or service that consumers are willing and able to purchase at a give price and within a specific time period. Demand, on the other hand, is a broader concept that encompasses the entire relationship between price and quantity demanded
Ezea
ok
Shukri
how do you save a country economic situation when it's falling apart
Lilia Reply
what is the difference between economic growth and development
Fiker Reply
Economic growth as an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services within an economy.but Economic development as a broader concept that encompasses not only economic growth but also social & human well being.
Shukri
production function means
Jabir
What do you think is more important to focus on when considering inequality ?
Abdisa Reply
any question about economics?
Awais Reply
sir...I just want to ask one question... Define the term contract curve? if you are free please help me to find this answer 🙏
Asui
it is a curve that we get after connecting the pareto optimal combinations of two consumers after their mutually beneficial trade offs
Awais
thank you so much 👍 sir
Asui
In economics, the contract curve refers to the set of points in an Edgeworth box diagram where both parties involved in a trade cannot be made better off without making one of them worse off. It represents the Pareto efficient allocations of goods between two individuals or entities, where neither p
Cornelius
In economics, the contract curve refers to the set of points in an Edgeworth box diagram where both parties involved in a trade cannot be made better off without making one of them worse off. It represents the Pareto efficient allocations of goods between two individuals or entities,
Cornelius
Suppose a consumer consuming two commodities X and Y has The following utility function u=X0.4 Y0.6. If the price of the X and Y are 2 and 3 respectively and income Constraint is birr 50. A,Calculate quantities of x and y which maximize utility. B,Calculate value of Lagrange multiplier. C,Calculate quantities of X and Y consumed with a given price. D,alculate optimum level of output .
Feyisa Reply
Answer
Feyisa
c
Jabir
the market for lemon has 10 potential consumers, each having an individual demand curve p=101-10Qi, where p is price in dollar's per cup and Qi is the number of cups demanded per week by the i th consumer.Find the market demand curve using algebra. Draw an individual demand curve and the market dema
Gsbwnw Reply
suppose the production function is given by ( L, K)=L¼K¾.assuming capital is fixed find APL and MPL. consider the following short run production function:Q=6L²-0.4L³ a) find the value of L that maximizes output b)find the value of L that maximizes marginal product
Abdureman
types of unemployment
Yomi Reply
What is the difference between perfect competition and monopolistic competition?
Mohammed
what are y=b+mx
Deva Reply
The equation y = b + mx represents a linear equation in slope-intercept form, where y is the dependent variable, x is the independent variable, m is the slope, and b is the y-intercept. The slope-intercept form of a linear equation is commonly written as y = mx + b, where m represents the slope of
Steven
Consider the following Total Revenue (TR) and Total Cost (TC) functions for a firm operating in a perfect competition market: TR = 6Q and TC = Q3 – 2Q2 + 50Q + 25 Determine the profit maximizing or loss minimizing equilibrium level of output. Compute the level of
Abdulwab Reply

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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