<< Chapter < Page Chapter >> Page >
By the end of this section, you will be able to:
  • Explain the random walk theory
  • Calculate simple and compound interest
  • Evaluate how capital markets transform financial capital

Getting rich may seem straightforward enough. Figure out what companies are going to grow and earn high profits in the future, or figure out what companies are going to become popular for everyone else to buy. Those companies are the ones that will pay high dividends or whose stock price will climb in the future. Then, buy stock in those companies. Presto! Multiply your money!

Why is this path to riches not as easy as it sounds? This module first discusses the problems with picking stocks, and then discusses a more reliable but undeniably duller method of accumulating personal wealth.

Why it is hard to get rich quick: the random walk theory

The chief problem with attempting to buy stock    in companies that will have higher prices in the future is that many other financial investors are trying to do the same thing. Thus, in attempting to get rich in the stock market, it is no help to identify a company that is going to earn high profits if many other investors have already reached the same conclusion, because the stock price will already be high, based on the expected high level of future profits.

The idea that stock prices are based on expectations about the future has a powerful and unexpected implication. If expectations determine stock price, then shifts in expectations will determine shifts in the stock price. Thus, what matters for predicting whether the stock price of a company will do well is not whether the company will actually earn profits in the future. Instead, you must find a company that is widely believed at present to have poor prospects, but that will actually turn out to be a shining star. Brigades of stock market analysts and individual investors are carrying out such research 24 hours a day.

The fundamental problem with predicting future stock winners is that, by definition, no one can predict the future news that alters expectations about profits. Because stock prices will shift in response to unpredictable future news, these prices will tend to follow what mathematicians call a “random walk with a trend.” The “random walk” part means that, on any given day, stock prices are just as likely to rise as to fall. “With a trend” means that over time, the upward steps tend to be larger than the downward steps, so stocks do gradually climb.

If stocks follow a random walk, then not even financial professionals will be able to choose those that will beat the average consistently. While some investment advisers are better than average in any given year, and some even succeed for a number of years in a row, the majority of financial investors do not outguess the market. If we look back over time, it is typically true that half or two-thirds of the mutual funds that attempted to pick stocks which would rise more than the market average actually ended up doing worse than the market average. For the average investor who reads the business pages of the newspaper over a cup of coffee in the morning, the odds of doing better than full-time professionals is not very good at all. Trying to pick the stocks that will gain a great deal in the future is a risky and unlikely way to become rich.

Questions & Answers

what is biology
Yousuf Reply
the study of living organisms and their interactions with one another and their environments
AI-Robot
the study of living organisms and their interactions with one another and their environment.
Wine
discuss the biological phenomenon and provide pieces of evidence to show that it was responsible for the formation of eukaryotic organelles in an essay form
Joseph Reply
what is the blood cells
Shaker Reply
list any five characteristics of the blood cells
Shaker
lack electricity and its more savely than electronic microscope because its naturally by using of light
Abdullahi Reply
advantage of electronic microscope is easily and clearly while disadvantage is dangerous because its electronic. advantage of light microscope is savely and naturally by sun while disadvantage is not easily,means its not sharp and not clear
Abdullahi
cell theory state that every organisms composed of one or more cell,cell is the basic unit of life
Abdullahi
is like gone fail us
DENG
cells is the basic structure and functions of all living things
Ramadan
What is classification
ISCONT Reply
is organisms that are similar into groups called tara
Yamosa
in what situation (s) would be the use of a scanning electron microscope be ideal and why?
Kenna Reply
A scanning electron microscope (SEM) is ideal for situations requiring high-resolution imaging of surfaces. It is commonly used in materials science, biology, and geology to examine the topography and composition of samples at a nanoscale level. SEM is particularly useful for studying fine details,
Hilary
cell is the building block of life.
Condoleezza Reply
what is cell divisoin?
Aron Reply
Diversity of living thing
ISCONT
what is cell division
Aron Reply
Cell division is the process by which a single cell divides into two or more daughter cells. It is a fundamental process in all living organisms and is essential for growth, development, and reproduction. Cell division can occur through either mitosis or meiosis.
AI-Robot
What is life?
Allison Reply
life is defined as any system capable of performing functions such as eating, metabolizing,excreting,breathing,moving,Growing,reproducing,and responding to external stimuli.
Mohamed
what is ecology
Philip Reply
study of interaction between living things and their environment
AI-Robot
the same
Menseh
ecology
Ahmed
so what are the sub topics under it
Lukmon
the draw of microscope and lebel it
Saidu Reply
What's atomic
John Reply
atomic? or atom🙄
joyce
related to or concerning an atom.
Nakita
what is biology?
Wine Reply
what are the important of biology?
Wine
what is Biology
Akech Reply
Got questions? Join the online conversation and get instant answers!
Jobilize.com Reply

Get Jobilize Job Search Mobile App in your pocket Now!

Get it on Google Play Download on the App Store Now




Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google Inc.

Notification Switch

Would you like to follow the 'Principles of economics' conversation and receive update notifications?

Ask