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By the end of this chapter, the student should be able to:
It is often necessary to "guess" about the outcome of an event in order to make a decision. Politicians study polls to guess their likelihood of winning an election. Teachers choose aparticular course of study based on what they think students can comprehend. Doctors choose the treatments needed for various diseases based on their assessment of likely results. You may have visited a casino wherepeople play games chosen because of the belief that the likelihood of winning is good. You may have chosen your course of study based on the probable availability of jobs.
You have, more than likely, used probability. In fact, you probably have an intuitive sense of probability. Probability deals with the chance of an event occurring. Whenever you weigh theodds of whether or not to do your homework or to study for an exam, you are using probability. In this chapter, you will learn to solve probability problems using a systematicapproach.
Your instructor will survey your class. Count the number of students in the class today.
Use the class data as estimates of the following probabilities. $\text{P(change)}$ means the probability that a randomly chosen person in your class has change in his/her pocket or purse. $\text{P(bus)}$ means the probability that a randomly chosen person in your class rode a bus within the last month and so on. Discuss your answers.
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