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We model the counties of Colorado as a Markov Random Field in an attempt to predict the results of the 2012 Presidential Election therein.

Introduction

The importance of predicting the United States Presidential Election cannot be understated because of the impact the U.S. president has on national policy. The U.S. President holds the veto power, which can make it very difficult for the Congress to pass legislation without his approval. In addition, the president appoints all federal judges, most notably the justices of the Supreme Court. While all nominees must be confirmed by the Senate, the confirmation process is usually a rubber stamp and few nominees are turned down, with some notable exceptions (such as Ronald Reagan's failed appointment of Robert Bork). Also, the U.S. President is the Commander in Chief of the U.S. military and can go to war unilaterally and then ask for Congressional approval 48 hours later under the War Powers Resolution of 1973. Lastly, presidents use the executive order to carry out their wishes, perhaps outside the constraints of the Constitution, to choose which laws they want to enforce. For example, President Obama does not enforce neither Defense of Marriage Act nor the deportation of illegal immigrants under the age of 30, Harry Truman ended racial segregation of the military, and Jimmy Carter created the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Clearly the U.S. president has enormous power in the U.S. and abroad. Therefore, a company or an individual making decisions that demand foresight about the political state of the country would benefit knowing who the next president is.

Despite the large demand for predicting elections, most existing methods are either unscientific or unreliable. Unscientific judgements include evaluations of a candidate's character or analysis of a candidate's rhetoric. It is not wrong to say that one candidate will win over another because he has more charisma or more appeal to the party base. Such statements are meaningful because political intangibles like charisma and appeal to the base are vital aspects for any politician. The problem is that such intangibles lack some sort of reliable measuring stick, something that can be viewed objectively rather than through the lens of political opinion, in which people may view candidates as they want to see them rather than as they really are.

The most common answer to the measuring stick problem is using public opinion polls. However, public opinion polls are unreliable. Polls are no doubt useful for a first approximation to predicting an election, but they contain many pitfalls for the election forecaster. For example, national polls may not be able to predict who will win the electoral college. The electoral college evolved to limit direct democracy, and an important consequence of the electoral college is that a president can win a presidential election without winning the popular vote. Four U.S. presidents have done so: John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and most recently George W. Bush in 2000 [link] . Furthermore, national polls include voters from states of no consequence in that they are solidly Republican or Democratic states (i.e. Democratic voters from Texas or Republican voters from Massachusetts or New York). For these reasons, state level polls are more accurate.

Questions & Answers

A golfer on a fairway is 70 m away from the green, which sits below the level of the fairway by 20 m. If the golfer hits the ball at an angle of 40° with an initial speed of 20 m/s, how close to the green does she come?
Aislinn Reply
cm
tijani
what is titration
John Reply
what is physics
Siyaka Reply
A mouse of mass 200 g falls 100 m down a vertical mine shaft and lands at the bottom with a speed of 8.0 m/s. During its fall, how much work is done on the mouse by air resistance
Jude Reply
Can you compute that for me. Ty
Jude
what is the dimension formula of energy?
David Reply
what is viscosity?
David
what is inorganic
emma Reply
what is chemistry
Youesf Reply
what is inorganic
emma
Chemistry is a branch of science that deals with the study of matter,it composition,it structure and the changes it undergoes
Adjei
please, I'm a physics student and I need help in physics
Adjanou
chemistry could also be understood like the sexual attraction/repulsion of the male and female elements. the reaction varies depending on the energy differences of each given gender. + masculine -female.
Pedro
A ball is thrown straight up.it passes a 2.0m high window 7.50 m off the ground on it path up and takes 1.30 s to go past the window.what was the ball initial velocity
Krampah Reply
2. A sled plus passenger with total mass 50 kg is pulled 20 m across the snow (0.20) at constant velocity by a force directed 25° above the horizontal. Calculate (a) the work of the applied force, (b) the work of friction, and (c) the total work.
Sahid Reply
you have been hired as an espert witness in a court case involving an automobile accident. the accident involved car A of mass 1500kg which crashed into stationary car B of mass 1100kg. the driver of car A applied his brakes 15 m before he skidded and crashed into car B. after the collision, car A s
Samuel Reply
can someone explain to me, an ignorant high school student, why the trend of the graph doesn't follow the fact that the higher frequency a sound wave is, the more power it is, hence, making me think the phons output would follow this general trend?
Joseph Reply
Nevermind i just realied that the graph is the phons output for a person with normal hearing and not just the phons output of the sound waves power, I should read the entire thing next time
Joseph
Follow up question, does anyone know where I can find a graph that accuretly depicts the actual relative "power" output of sound over its frequency instead of just humans hearing
Joseph
"Generation of electrical energy from sound energy | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore" ***ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7150687?reload=true
Ryan
what's motion
Maurice Reply
what are the types of wave
Maurice
answer
Magreth
progressive wave
Magreth
hello friend how are you
Muhammad Reply
fine, how about you?
Mohammed
hi
Mujahid
A string is 3.00 m long with a mass of 5.00 g. The string is held taut with a tension of 500.00 N applied to the string. A pulse is sent down the string. How long does it take the pulse to travel the 3.00 m of the string?
yasuo Reply
Who can show me the full solution in this problem?
Reofrir Reply
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Source:  OpenStax, The art of the pfug. OpenStax CNX. Jun 05, 2013 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col10523/1.34
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