0.2 Historic perspectives: economic and population growth  (Page 5/10)

Has the final stage in the evolution of the Chinese economy now arrived? Will the Chinese economy be able to sustain relatively rapid rates of economic growth over time?

Perhaps the best way to approach an answer to this question is to bear in mind a quote from the most famous and perhaps most accomplished civil servant in modern Chinese history: Chou-En Lai. He was the first Prime Minister of China (1949-1976) and a leader of the Chinese communist party, beginning with the “Long March” to Yunnan province, led by Mao Tse-tung 1934-36.

When asked by the French Ambassador his opinion of the French Revolution in the late 18th century, Chou was reported to have replied:

It is too soon to tell.

Growth perspectives from the russian and east european experience

Russia is a very large country, larger than the U.S. in land area by far. But the Russian economy in 2012 (measured by GDP) was only about twice the size of the state of New York, and was about the size of the Australian economy. Russian GDP in 2013 was $2.55 trillion. That of New York was $1.23 billion.

Consider the nation of Belorussia as compared to the state of Alaska. Both Alaska and Belarus were formerly a part of Russia. Today, in thinly populated Alaska, GDP is roughly the size of populous Belarus GDP Belarus GDP: US$ 54.71 billion (2010) The World Bank. after 15 years of Socialism in post-Soviet Belarus.

Other perspectives from economic history

Economists in particular, and Americans in general do not listen clearly enough to the rhymes of history. Often in this book we will find it helpful to utilize historical perspectives as we try to understand modern economic development.

Consider Income Patterns:

U.S. per capita income in 2013 was about $51,000, while per capita income in 2013 for the poorest nations was as follows: For all such information see World Bank (IBRD) World Development Indicators 2013 . (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013) :

But what about long-term income growth?

All modern studies of long-term growth must recognize the contributions of the economist Angus Maddison. Until a few years ago, economists knew little about ancient and medieval economic data. Maddison, who died in 2010, pioneered and inspired the meticulous kind of research that allows us some plausible estimates of per capita GDP in ancient Rome and medieval Europe. Angus was deeply fond of numbers, and was very careful how he used the results of his stone-by-stone research. Thanks to the lifelong work of Professor Maddison and several other scholars, we now have a much better understanding of the evolution of average world per capita income over time.

Basically, for thousands of years the standard of living worldwide was roughly constant, and it did not differ greatly across countries. That is to say throughout most human history life was brutish, nasty and short. Per capita income (in today’s money) globally was about $445 in the year 100 C.E., or more than Congo Kinshasa in 2013. According to one economist historian, the Rome of 100 A.D. was a better place to live than the capitals of Europe in 1800; Rome had better paved streets, sewage disposal, water supply and fire protection in 1800 Europe. Joel Mokyr (1992), The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress , New York, N.Y: Oxford University Press. Nearly a thousand years later (1,000 A.D.) living standards had deteriorated, and per capita income had globally declined by about 2%.